"Cash is dead, the central bank digital currency is coming." The line circulates as if obvious. The actual 2026 numbers are far more modest: only a handful of countries have truly launched a CBDC, the digital euro does not yet exist, and "exploring" is not "deploying." Here is the exact state of play.
Three real launches, all in small economies, and with weak adoption even where the CBDC exists. This is a long way from the global shift the word "CBDC" conjures in the imagination.
The digital yuan (e-CNY) remains the world's largest CBDC pilot: by the end of 2025 it had processed more than 3.4 billion transactions worth about 16.7 trillion yuan. But it is still a PILOT, not a completed national rollout — and in January 2026, China's central bank reclassified the e-CNY as "deposit liabilities," a shift away from its original function as "digital cash."
In the euro area, nothing is launched. The digital euro's pilot phase is set to run for 12 months starting in the second half of 2027; a first issuance is only envisaged in 2029, and only if legislation is adopted. The ECB had received over 50 applications from payment providers for its pilot by March 2026. In other words: a project in preparation, with a distant timeline and political decisions still to come.
146 countries and currency unions, representing over 98% of global GDP, are exploring a CBDC; 77 are in the advanced phase (development, pilot or launch) and 41 pilots are under way. The subject is thus massive and global — but "exploring" or "piloting" is not "launching." The research is real; widespread deployment is not.
[DOCUMENTED FACT] The three pioneers share an embarrassing trait: adoption remains marginal. In Nigeria, a year after launch, about 98% of eNaira wallets went unused in any given week, to the point that the authorities multiplied incentives; in the Bahamas as in Jamaica, the CBDC accounts for a tiny fraction of money in circulation. [CORRELATION] The provisional lesson of the available data: offering a public digital currency is not enough to get it adopted, as long as cards, banking apps and cash already meet people's needs.
[DOCUMENTED FACT] The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which federates central banks, runs a reference annual survey: the overwhelming majority of central banks are working on the subject, but the trend measured in recent years is a growing priority given to "wholesale" CBDC (reserved for interbank settlement) over "retail" CBDC aimed at the general public. [CORRELATION] This shift runs counter to the narrative of an imminent consumer surveillance currency: it is the interbank plumbing, invisible to the public, that is advancing fastest.
[DOCUMENTED FACT] The United States shows that the trajectory is by no means inevitable: in January 2025, a presidential executive order prohibited federal agencies from creating or promoting a CBDC, the Federal Reserve itself having repeatedly said it would not launch a digital dollar without the approval of Congress. The world's largest economy has therefore, to date, chosen the opposite direction — in favour, notably, of regulated private stablecoins. [HYPOTHESIS] Whether that position survives political change is another question; the fact is that in 2026, no central bank digital dollar exists or is scheduled.
So the honest question is not "when will cash disappear" — no credible timeline foresees it. It is "what level of privacy the digital euro will have, if it ever comes." That is where the real power stakes lie — in the design, not in an abolition of cash that is neither decided nor scheduled.
Only three have a fully launched retail CBDC in 2026: the Bahamas (Sand Dollar, 2020), Nigeria (eNaira, 2021) and Jamaica (JAM-DEX, 2022). Everywhere else, these are pilots or explorations.
The e-CNY (digital yuan) is the largest pilot in the world (more than 3.4 billion transactions by the end of 2025), but it remains a pilot. In January 2026, the central bank reclassified it as deposit liabilities.
Not for a long time: a 12-month pilot phase is planned from the second half of 2027, and a first issuance only in 2029, if the legislation is adopted. Nothing has been launched yet.
Nothing indicates it. In the 3 countries that have launched a CBDC, it coexists with cash without replacing it. No credible timetable foresees the end of cash.
146 countries and monetary unions (more than 98% of world GDP) are exploring a CBDC, including 77 at an advanced stage and 41 pilots. But exploring is not launching.
Dossier : Monnaie & identité numérique : l'architecture du contrôle
TOME 2: L'Architecture du Contrôle
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